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张敬伟:震荡是股市“后证金”时代的常态

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月20日 21:06:13
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(  张)(敬)(伟)(  14日)(,证)(监)(会)(新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(邓)(舸)(证)(实)(,证)(金)(公)(司)(13日)(起)(已)(通)(过)(协)(议)(将)(部)(分)(股)(票)(转)(让)(给)(中)(央)(汇)(金)(公)(司)(,不)(过)(证)(监)(会)(同)(时)(承)(诺)(,证)(金)(公)(司)(若)(干)(年)(内)(不)(会)(退)(出)(A股)(市)(场)(,仍)(将)(继)(续)(以)(多)(种)(形)(式)(发)(挥)(维)(稳)(作)(用)(。  不)(得)(不)(说)(,股)(市)(进)(入)(了)(“后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(,这)(个)(时)(代)(的)(大)(幕)(拉)(开)(,呈)(现)(的)(景)(象)(是)(“震)(荡)(”——这)(是)(沪)(深)(两)(市)(的)(常)(态)(。  震)(荡)(中)(,千)(股)(涨)(停)(和)(千)(股)(跌)(停)(是)(寻)(常)(事)(,千)(股)(停)(牌)(和)(千)(股)(复)(牌)(也)(是)(自)(然)(。市)(场)(永)(远)(是)(股)(市)(的)(主)(轴)(,“国)(家)(队)(”出)(手)(不)(过)(是)(小)(插)(曲)(。逐)(流)(政)(策)(市)(,依)(赖)(政)(策)(市)(,既)(不)(理)(性)(亦)(不)(可)(持)(续)(。  审)(视)(震)(荡)(中)(的)(股)(市)(,已)(经)(步)(入)(3600点)(左)(右)(的)(常)(态)(区)(间)(。上)(冲)(4000点)(,下)(探)(3000点)(,都)(属)(于)(正)(常)(。震)(荡)(与)(稳)(定)(,本)(属)(于)(辩)(证)(的)(一)(体)(两)(面)(,“后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(,震)(荡)(之)(中)(求)(稳)(定)(,这)(是)(股)(市)(大)(势)(,也)(是)(政)(策)(面)(的)(期)(望)(。  相)(比)(18日)(千)(股)(跌)(停)(的)(尴)(尬)(,19日)(的)(两)(市)(让)(人)(安)(心)(了)(不)(少)(。投)(资)(者)(对)(两)(市)(相)(关)(数)(字)(已)(经)(脱)(敏)(,大)(家)(关)(注)(的)(只)(有)(两)(点)(,一)(是)(沪)(指)(是)(否)(稳)(在)(3600点)(左)(右)(,二)(是)(收)(盘)(是)(涨)(还)(是)(跌)(。  未)(来)(两)(市)(走)(向)(,依)(然)(在)(于)(市)(场)(对)(政)(策)(的)(依)(赖)(程)(度)(。18日)(两)(市)(1600个)(股)(跌)(停)(,是)(由)(国)(企)(改)(革)(股)(“领)(跌)(”。凸)(显)(投)(资)(者)(对)(政)(策)(的)(依)(赖)(,股)(民)(对)(政)(策)(利)(好)(的)(消)(费)(变)(得)(敏)(感)(脆)(弱)(,缺)(乏)(投)(资)(定)(性)(。更)(关)(键)(的)(是)(,两)(市)(大)(跌)(后)(,“国)(家)(队)(”没)(有)(像)(前)(期)(强)(力)(注)(入)(资)(金)(,而)(是)(适)(时)(节)(制)(出)(手)(。这)(就)(是)(“后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(的)(鲜)(明)(特)(征)(。  由)(此)(,19日)(两)(市)(收)(盘)(的)(“涨)(”就)(不)(难)(理)(解)(了)(。据)(中)(国)(证)(券)(网)(初)(步)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(8月)(19日)(15点)(,至)(少)(有)(40家)(公)(司)(通)(过)(各)(种)(途)(径)(披)(露)(了)(证)(金)(、汇)(金)(持)(股)(的)(踪)(迹)(。这)(也)(验)(证)(了)(14日)(证)(监)(会)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(的)(消)(息)(。  真)(的)(是)(两)(市)(震)(荡)(不)(已)(,证)(金)(公)(司)(维)(稳)(不)(停)(?显)(然)(,这)(不)(是)(决)(策)(面)(所)(期)(。就)(稍)(远)(的)(后)(市)(愿)(景)(看)(,市)(场)(对)(证)(金)(公)(司)(也)(不)(能)(有)(不)(切)(实)(际)(的)(幻)(想)(。无)(论)(是)(政)(策)(导)(向)(还)(是)(证)(金)(公)(司)(,都)(不)(可)(能)(成)(为)(主)(控)(两)(市)(的)(主)(角)(,市)(场)(决)(定)(两)(市)(才)(是)(真)(理)(。  况)(且)(,证)(金)(公)(司)(或)(是)(中)(央)(汇)(金)(公)(司)(,他)(们)(介)(入)(股)(市)(的)(目)(的)(不)(是)(为)(了)(制)(造)(大)(牛)(市)(,让)(所)(有)(投)(资)(者)(都)(赚)(得)(钵)(满)(盆)(满)(,而)(是)(让)(股)(市)(稳)(定)(,使)(股)(市)(成)(为)(市)(场)(化)(融)(资)(的)(有)(序)(载)(体)(。  简)(言)(之)(,稳)(定)(市)(场)(是)(要)(培)(育)(基)(本)(理)(性)(的)(投)(资)(市)(场)(,而)(不)(是)(浮)(躁)(焦)(虑)(情)(绪)(弥)(漫)(的)(投)(机)(市)(场)(。投)(资)(者)(莫)(要)(误)(会)(了)(“国)(家)(队)(”稳)(定)(市)(场)(、稳)(定)(人)(心)(和)(保)(护)(中)(小)(投)(资)(者)(的)(目)(的)(。如)(果)(说)(中)(小)(投)(资)(者)(患)(上)(了)(稳)(定)(股)(市)(依)(赖)(症)(,而)(且)(投)(机)(欲)(望)(超)(过)(了)(投)(资)(愿)(望)(,“国)(家)(队)(”是)(不)(会)(给)(这)(部)(分)(群)(体)(托)(底)(的)(。  “后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(的)(股)(市)(震)(荡)(,就)(是)(要)(让)(投)(资)(者)(们)(重)(新)(养)(成)(市)(场)(风)(险)(意)(识)(,为)(自)(己)(的)(投)(资)(和)(投)(机)(行)(为)(负)(全)(责)(。证)(金)(公)(司)(和)(中)(央)(汇)(金)(公)(司)(不)(会)(为)(任)(何)(投)(资)(者)(承)(担)(责)(任)(。  市)(场)(忽)(略)(的)(焦)(点)(问)(题)(是)(,“后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(的)(沪)(市)(股)(指)(应)(该)(是)(多)(少)(?和)(持)(续)(多)(年)(的)(熊)(市)(相)(比)(,3600点)(左)(右)(已)(经)(很)(不)(错)(了)(。宏)(观)(经)(济)(运)(行)(目)(前)(并)(未)(走)(出)(颓)(势)(,而)(且)(全)(球)(市)(场)(都)(不)(景)(气)(,一)(揽)(子)(改)(革)(和)(利)(好)(政)(策)(推)(升)(了)(今)(年)(的)(牛)(市)(。  当)(然)(,和)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(运)(行)(不)(匹)(配)(,则)(是)(本)(轮)(股)(市)(大)(跌)(的)(根)(本)(原)(因)(,经)(过)(前)(期)(的)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(,两)(市)(虽)(然)(震)(荡)(不)(安)(,但)(也)(一)(改)(去)(年)(以)(前)(的)(熊)(市)(之)(衰)(。“后)(证)(金)(”时)(代)(,两)(市)(稳)(下)(来)(就)(已)(经)(不)(错)(了)(。(作)(者)(为)(察)(哈)(尔)(学)(会)(研)(究)(员)()
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