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陶冬:美国离衰退有多远?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 19:54:23
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(原)(标)(题)(:陶)(冬)(:美)(国)(离)(衰)(退)(有)(多)(远)(?
作)(者)(:陶)(冬)(
来)(源)(:首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)(
如)(果)(数)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(的)(话)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(目)(前)(处)(在)(战)(后)(第)(二)(长)(的)(周)(期)(,根)(据)(以)(往)(情)(形)(增)(长)(照)(理)(应)(该)(很)(快)(进)(入)(下)(行)(周)(期)(了)(,但)(是)(似)(乎)(又)(看)(不)(到)(衰)(退)(的)(踪)(影)(。
美)(国)(经)(济)(离)(衰)(退)(还)(有)(多)(远)(?根)(据)(NBER数)(据)(,战)(后)(以)(来)(美)(国)(经)(济)(总)(共)(经)(历)(过)(十)(二)(次)(经)(济)(周)(期)(,平)(均)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(期)((从)(谷)(底)(到)(顶)(部)()为)(54.8个)(月)(,本)(周)(期)(却)(已)(经)(扩)(张)(了)(73个)(月)(。从)(这)(个)(意)(义)(上)(看)(,结)(论)(自)(然)(是)(美)(国)(经)(济)(离)(出)(现)(衰)(退)(不)(远)(了)(,但)(是)(也)(许)(根)(本)(不)(应)(该)(这)(么)(计)(算)(月)(份)(来)(预)(测)(下)(一)(个)(衰)(退)(点)(的)(发)(生)(。
1983年)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(的)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(期)(明)(显)(延)(长)(,最)(近)(三)(个)(周)(期)(中)(有)(两)(个)(分)(别)(排)(名)(第)(一)(和)(第)(三)(长)(的)(扩)(张)(期)(,现)(在)(这)(个)(目)(前)(名)(列)(第)(四)(。图)(表)(显)(示)(,最)(近)(的)(经)(济)(周)(期)(与)(过)(去)(有)(明)(显)(的)(差)(异)(,也)(许)(将)(战)(后)(12个)(周)(期)(的)(长)(度)(平)(均)(一)(下)(来)(预)(言)(本)(周)(期)(是)(一)(个)(错)(误)(。
最)(近)(的)(三)(个)(周)(期)(分)(别)(始)(于)(1991年)(、2001年)(和)(2009年)(。这)(三)(个)(周)(期)(的)(一)(个)(共)(性)(,是)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(明)(显)(低)(过)(战)(后)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,这)(使)(得)(联)(储)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(长)(期)(处)(在)(非)(常)(宽)(松)(的)(状)(态)(,不)(仅)(有)(格)(林)(斯)(潘)(放)(任)(自)(流)(式)(的)(货)(币)(管)(理)(,还)(有)(伯)(南)(克)(的)(QE时)(代)(以)(及)(耶)(伦)(的)(超)(级)(鸽)(派)(立)(场)(。超)(宽)(松)(的)(货)(币)(环)(境)(,令)(企)(业)(的)(利)(息)(负)(担)(较)(轻)(、集)(资)(容)(易)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(也)(很)(旺)(畅)(,于)(是)(商)(业)(扩)(张)(持)(续)(时)(间)(更)(长)(。另)(外)(,最)(近)(三)(次)(周)(期)(中)(,经)(济)(都)(是)(从)(较)(深)(的)(谷)(底)(爬)(出)(,企)(业)(在)(初)(期)(对)(投)(资)(明)(显)(信)(心)(不)(足)(,这)(就)(拉)(长)(了)(投)(资)(周)(期)(,拉)(长)(了)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(。
在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,近)(三)(个)(周)(期)(的)(经)(济)(、货)(币)(、通)(胀)(环)(境)(,与)(战)(后)(其)(他)(周)(期)(有)(很)(大)(的)(差)(别)(,将)(战)(后)(各)(周)(期)(混)(在)(一)(起)(求)(平)(均)(数)(,分)(析)(意)(义)(不)(大)(,结)(论)(也)(未)(必)(正)(确)(。目)(前)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(的)(长)(度)(,对)(于)(预)(测)(衰)(退)(期)(何)(时)(到)(来)(,基)(本)(上)(没)(有)(意)(义)(。
但)(是)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,过)(往)(三)(个)(周)(期)(的)(经)(济)(调)(整)(烈)(度)(也)(比)(战)(后)(平)(均)(下)(行)(周)(期)(要)(更)(深)(、更)(重)(。doc.com泡)(沫)(和)(雷)(曼)(危)(机)(,均)(对)(经)(济)(造)(成)(惨)(烈)(的)(冲)(击)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(凋)(零)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(受)(伤)(尤)(甚)(。这)(和)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(环)(境)(下)(企)(业)(与)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(大)(增)(有)(关)(,和)(资)(金)(低)(成)(本)(之)(下)(金)(融)(市)(场)(投)(机)(炽)(热)(有)(关)(。市)(场)(在)(初)(期)(对)(利)(率)(上)(升)(、监)(管)(警)(示)(反)(应)(不)(大)(,但)(是)(突)(发)(性)(事)(件)(可)(能)(触)(发)(群)(体)(恐)(慌)(,甚)(至)(催)(生)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(。
笔)(者)(认)(为)(,美)(国)(离)(进)(入)(衰)(退)(还)(有)(相)(当)(的)(距)(离)(。特)(朗)(欧)(政)(府)(的)(减)(税)(计)(划)(,对)(短)(期)(的)(经)(济)(走)(势)(也)(有)(帮)(助)(。万)(一)(衰)(退)(出)(现)(,触)(发)(点)(可)(能)(是)(超)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(环)(境)(和)(超)(低)(资)(金)(成)(本)(所)(带)(来)(的)(过)(度)(借)(贷)(,其)(中)(市)(场)(杠)(杆)(是)(一)(个)(重)(大)(的)(风)(险)(源)(头)(。联)(储)(持)(续)(加)(息)(有)(可)(能)(触)(发)(个)(别)(部)(门)(的)(调)(整)(,进)(而)(将)(经)(济)(拖)(入)(下)(行)(周)(期)(。美)(国)(始)(作)(俑)(的)(贸)(易)(战)(,是)(害)(人)(不)(利)(己)(的)(,当)(全)(球)(经)(济)(因)(此)(受)(到)(影)(响)(时)(美)(国)(也)(会)(受)(到)(冲)(击)(。
不)(过)(2008年)(危)(机)(后)(,美)(国)(在)(处)(理)(银)(行)(坏)(账)(和)(居)(民)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(上)(做)(得)(相)(对)(比)(较)(认)(真)(彻)(底)(,经)(济)(的)(自)(我)(调)(节)(能)(力)(和)(科)(技)(创)(能)(力)(也)(相)(对)(比)(较)(强)(。笔)(者)(认)(为)(如)(果)(美)(国)(进)(入)(下)(行)(周)(期)(的)(话)(,相)(对)(的)(调)(整)(幅)(度)(不)(会)(很)(大)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


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